Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification for Engineering Decisions

Quantify how uncertain inputs, tolerances, operating ranges, and modeling assumptions affect CFD results, design risk, and confidence.

Uncertainty Quantification

Best for

Best for

  • CFD results affected by uncertain boundary conditions
  • Tolerance, operating range, or material assumption studies
  • Sensitivity ranking for key input variables
  • Robustness comparison across design variants

Not best for

  • Projects without plausible input ranges
  • Decisions without a measurable performance metric
  • Replacing validation data when testing is required

Uncertainty Quantification

UQ approach

UQ is used when one deterministic simulation is not enough to support a design decision. The workflow defines uncertain inputs, samples realistic ranges, evaluates metric variation, and identifies which inputs drive risk.

Input uncertainty definition

Sampling and study planning

Sensitivity and risk ranking

Confidence ranges for performance metrics

Uncertainty Quantification

Decision outputs

The result is framed around engineering decisions: whether a design remains acceptable under realistic variation, which parameters should be controlled, and what should be tested next.

Uncertainty range or confidence band

Robustness comparison across variants

Tolerance and control-priority recommendations

Validation or test-priority notes

Uncertainty Quantification

UQ outputs

01

Uncertain input table

02

Sampling or study plan

03

Sensitivity ranking

04

Performance confidence range

05

Robustness comparison

06

Risk and control-priority recommendations

Uncertainty Quantification

Common questions

What does UQ add to a CFD project?

UQ estimates how uncertain inputs affect final performance, helping teams identify robust designs instead of only evaluating one ideal condition.

When is UQ useful?

UQ is useful when boundary conditions, operating ranges, geometry tolerances, material properties, or model assumptions could change the final engineering decision.

Does UQ replace testing?

No. UQ helps prioritize risks and tests, but critical product decisions may still require validation data.

Uncertainty Quantification

Need confidence ranges for a CFD result?